We Are Almost Certainly Living in a Simulation

Classification: SIMULATION THEORY | Confidence: PEER-ARGUED — PHILOSOPHICALLY VALID

In 2003, Nick Bostrom published a trilemma — three possibilities, at least one must be true.

Bostrom's Trilemma

1. Humanity goes extinct before reaching "posthuman" stage
2. Posthuman civilizations don't run simulations
3. We are almost certainly living in a simulation

The Fine-Tuning Problem

• Strong nuclear force: 2% stronger = no hydrogen
• Cosmological constant: fine-tuned to 1 in 10^120
• Penrose: probability of initial state = 1 in 10^(10^123)

Quantum Mechanics

Particles exist in superposition until observed. Wheeler: "No phenomenon is a real phenomenon until it is an observed phenomenon." Exactly how a simulation would work.

The Conclusion

Pong to photorealistic 3D in 50 years. Give us 1,000. Will we not simulate universes? If we would and could — we already are.