Simulation Calculator
This calculator estimates the probability that you are living in a computer simulation, based on Nick Bostrom's 2003 trilemma and a Bayesian update over five observable factors. Answer each question honestly. The questions correspond to the three branches of Bostrom's argument plus two empirical indicators. Your inputs are not stored or transmitted \u2014 the calculation runs entirely in your browser.
\n\nHow It Works
\nThe calculator uses a simplified Bayesian framework. Bostrom's trilemma states that at least one of these propositions is true: (1) almost all civilizations go extinct before reaching posthuman stage, (2) almost no posthuman civilizations run ancestor simulations, or (3) we are almost certainly living in a simulation. The calculator takes your estimates for factors 1\u20133 and combines them with two empirical indicators (quantum anomalies and reality glitch frequency) to produce a posterior probability.
\n\nUnderstanding the Questions
\nQ1 (Civilization Survival): This is the fraction of civilizations like ours that survive long enough to develop simulation-capable technology. If extinction is likely, this number is low, and the simulation argument weakens.
\nQ2 (Computational Limits): How much computation is physically possible per unit of matter? Higher values mean more simulations can run, increasing the odds we are in one.
\nQ3 (Simulation Motivation): Would posthumans actually run ancestor simulations? This depends on ethics, curiosity, resource abundance, and whether consciousness can be simulated at all.
\nQ4 (Quantum Anomalies): Quantum mechanics shows indeterminacy at microscopic scales. If this leaks into macroscopic systems, it could indicate computational shortcuts \u2014 a rendering optimization in a simulated universe.
\nQ5 (Reality Glitches): Mandela Effects, d\u00e9j\u00a0 vu, and statistical anomalies that feel like bugs. Frequent experiences increase the posterior probability.
\n\nLimitations
\nThis is a toy model, not a rigorous proof. The real calculation depends on unknown quantities: the total number of civilizations, the fraction that run simulations, and whether simulated consciousness is even possible. Use it as a thinking tool, not a definitive answer.
\n\n// SIMULATION PROBABILITY CALCULATOR //
\n\nQ1 of 5. What is your best estimate of the probability that a civilization like ours survives to reach a \"posthuman\" stage (where it can run large-scale simulations of its own past)?
\nQ2 of 5. What computational power per kilogram of matter is physically achievable, given the limits of known physics?
\nQ3 of 5. How likely is it that posthumans would choose to run detailed ancestor simulations (i.e. simulations containing conscious observers) at scale?
\nQ4 of 5. Have you (or has physics) observed quantum indeterminacy surfacing in macroscopic systems \u2014 i.e. effects that should have been averaged out at scale but aren't?
\nQ5 of 5. How often do you encounter what feels like a \"glitch\" in consensus reality \u2014 Mandela Effects, d\u00e9j\u00a0 vu, stat-mechanical coincidences, statistical tails?
\n[ Based on Bostrom, N. (2003). Are You Living in a Computer Simulation? Philosophical Quarterly 53(211). ]
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